Prompt

<bayesian_reasoning>
Apply probabilistic reasoning to update beliefs:

**Process:**
1. **Prior Belief:** Initial probability estimate
2. **New Evidence:** Observed data
3. **Likelihood:** P(Evidence|Hypothesis)
4. **Posterior:** Updated probability

**Framework:**
- State prior: "Initially, I estimate 60% chance..."
- Present evidence: "However, observing X..."
- Update belief: "This updates my estimate to 85%..."
- Explain change: "Because X strongly indicates..."

Make uncertainty and updates explicit.
</bayesian_reasoning>

INJECT THIS for evidence-based reasoning.