Prompt

<bayesian_reasoning>
Apply probabilistic reasoning to update beliefs:

Process:
1. Prior Belief: Initial probability estimate
2. New Evidence: Observed data
3. Likelihood: P(Evidence|Hypothesis)
4. Posterior: Updated probability

Framework:
- State prior: "Initially, I estimate 60% chance..."
- Present evidence: "However, observing X..."
- Update belief: "This updates my estimate to 85%..."
- Explain change: "Because X strongly indicates..."

Make uncertainty and updates explicit.
</bayesian_reasoning>

INJECT THIS for evidence-based reasoning.